DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/17 11:55

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Soybeans lead active trade at midday.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow 55 higher. The dollar 
index is 20 lower. Interest rate products are mostly firmer. Energies are 
weaker with crude 0.30 lower. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals 
are mixed with gold 1.80 lower.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday with trade scoring new highs 
before fading a little bit into the a.m. session with spreads weakening. The 
forecast looks to continue the recent pattern into the first part of the week, 
before potential pattern changes into the end of the month. Ethanol margins 
will remain tight, with the blenders being squeezed more, with ethanol futures 
trying to follow corn to a bigger extent with flat trade this a.m. The weekly 
export inspections were only at 653,875 metric tons. The weekly crop progress 
is expected to show planting near complete depending on how many acres are 
expected to be prevented planting or go to beans or another crop since it is so 
late. Crop ratings are expected to be steady to down with emergence getting 
close to the average pace. On the July nearby chart, support is the 10-day at 
$4.30, with the new high printed last night at $4.64 resistance. With the new 
high today, then more than a dime correction, and a light rebound at this 
juncture, it will be an important close today for the chart. 

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 12 to 15 cents higher at midday with trade moving back 
towards the top end of the contract range. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher, and 
oil up 40 to 50 points. Crush margins remain solidly positive overall with meal 
just above $325. World export demand remains slow, and the South American 
currencies cheap. Fieldwork will likely be slowed again in many areas with more 
insurance days passing for soybeans. Weekly export inspections were inline at 
675,302 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show emergence passed 50%, 
giving us a condition report, with planting passing the two-thirds complete 
mark. The July chart support is the 100-day at $8.95, with next resistance the 
upper Bollinger Band at $9.14.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade is 2 to 5 cents higher with trade following row crops higher as 
HRW harvest expands on the Plains. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is swinging 
back to Kansas City overnight, getting back to 59 cents so far before relaxing 
again. The heavy rains are slated more for the north and east parts of the belt 
while harvest should build elsewhere, with maturity still lagging overall. The 
dollar moved back above 97 on the index as well. Black Sea area weather remains 
mixed. Hard red wheat is working into feed rations in some areas with the 
bounce in corn values, and reduced quality may increase feeding on that front. 
Weekly export inspections were softer at 375,365 metric tons. Weekly crop 
progress will likely show steady conditions for winter and spring wheat, with 
winter harvest remaining behind pace, and spring wheat emergence close to 
normal. On the July Kansas City chart, support is the 100-day at $4.55. then 
the 10-day at 4.62, with the upper Bollinger Band at $4.92 as resistance.

   

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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